Trump’s 'Tony Soprano' Moment
By Patrick Theros - January 27, 2025
It
did sound like our new/old president answered Bill Clinton's question
“Who’s the *** superpower around here?” It's a pity, no it's a tragedy,
that Joe Biden wasn't the one to answer the question. Every report about
the meeting between Steve Witkoff, Trump’s new Special Envoy to the
Middle East and Benjamin Netanyahu tells the same story. In a meeting
described as “tense” in the Israeli press, it appears that Witkoff
played the role of Patsy Parisi, a ‘soldier’ in the eponymous crime
family, 'The Sopranos'. After the Capo, Tony Soprano, ends
his affair with Gloria Trillo (Netanyahu’s role), he sends Patsy to
make sure she stays away. Patsy takes Gloria on a drive in a flashy new
car and, once they’re alone, pulls a gun on her, stating: “You ever speak to him again, next time you see me, I’ll be the last face you ever see this side of heaven.”
Bibi got the same message; he signed up to the cease-fire being
negotiated in Qatar within an hour or two of the meeting. And there is
always a consolation prize. For Gloria it was the car. For Bibi, it was
their fear of Trump keeping the religious nationalists, Bazalel Smotrich
and Itamar Ben Gvir, from bringing down Netanyahu’s government.
Netanyahu
accepted a cease-fire agreement nearly identical to what Blinken had
proposed for over a year. Had Biden shown moral and political courage,
US influence in the region could have been preserved, Trump might not
have won, and tens of thousands of Palestinians, Lebanese, Yemenis and
Israelis would be alive today.
The argument that Israel’s war
caused the Syrian regime’s collapse is unconvincing. Hizballah had
already withdrawn from Lebanon, and Russia, distracted by Ukraine, was a
waning ally. The Assad regime’s fall mirrored Afghanistan’s collapse
four years before. Corruption that left Syrian soldiers unpaid and often
unfed while their superior officers grew fat had eroded loyalty. They
just went home rather than die for a rotten regime.
Does a
cease-fire hold beyond the first six weeks’ phase? There are some
scattered reports that Netanyahu placated his right-wing allies by
promising that he would resume the war as soon as opportunity presented
itself. That's not the way that Capos like Tony Soprano or Donald
Trump work. I doubt that either Patsy or Steve Witkoff would hint that
the affair, or the war, could resume. Trump has a transformational, one
can say HUGE, agenda in mind and does not want to worry about a bloody
war being waged solely to keep Netanyahu in power. Netanyahu and his
far-right wing allies would be making a serious mistake if they
challenged Trump. YNET, a well-connected Israeli news agency, reported
that Witkoff reassured Hamas that Netanyahu would not restart the
fighting after the release of hostages.
Trump was key to breaking
the log jam, but we should not forget that others made serious
contributions to bring the fighting to a halt. Egypt and Qatar were
irreplaceable, the latter more than any other party. They played an
active mediating role by applying pressure on both sides as needed. Even
Biden for once, did the right thing by allowing Witkoff to join his own
negotiators and supporting him when he threatened Netanyahu.
What
happens next? To misquote Yogi Berra, “the future is hard to predict
because it’s in the future.” Trump comes out of this a big winner
domestically but will have new challenges in the Arab world. He will
have cemented the personal loyalty of the half million Arab and Muslim
citizens of Detroit who have traditionally voted overwhelmingly
Democratic. Stopping the slaughter in Gaza after the Democrats sent Bill
Clinton to lecture Dearborn on the justice of the Israeli cause will
have long-term consequences. But Evangelicals and Neocons turned MAGA
will be surprised and disappointed to learn that whatever his other
flaws, Trump is not a warmonger.
Netanyahu’s brutality in order
to stay in power complicates Trump’s Middle East plans. It imperils any
pivot to China. Reviving the Abraham Accords, particularly with Saudi
Arabia, demands concrete progress toward a Palestinian state. If the US
doesn’t act swiftly to reverse Israeli occupation of Syrian and Lebanese
border lands, Hezbollah will recover. Turkey, a NATO member, will gain
regional influence by confronting Israel, putting US and NATO in a bind.
Meanwhile, any US “maximum pressure” on Iran risks alienating Arab
states and pushing Iran closer to Russia and China. A strategic
recalibration is essential to avoid missteps and balance regional
stability with campaign promises.
If this sounds as if I have
made a complete conversion into the MAGA camp, I haven't. Trump still
comes with baggage that bodes ill for the future of the United States
even if he did what is in our best interest this time.
Let
me close with an allegory. Some years back, I took my daughter to New
York to visit the universities to which she had applied. One was
Fordham. Driving down Fordham Avenue in the Bronx convinced me that this
was no place I wanted my daughter to attend. At Fordham, we listened to
a bright young woman talk about how much she enjoyed life at the
university. I asked her about safety, noting what we had seen on Fordham
Avenue. She replied that she would never walk out of the main gate onto
Fordham Avenue. However, the back gate connected directly to Little
Italy in the Bronx, where she felt safe walking back to campus even in
the early hours of the morning. The Mob may be good at guaranteeing the
security of a college student walking through their neighborhood, but it
comes with a price, one that includes protection payments extorted from
shop owners, drug trafficking, and illegal prostitution.